Formulation of the mathematical model for the planning system in the carriage of dangerous goods by rail

Abstract

The paper aims to the topical issue of improving the system in the planning of carriage of dangerous goods by rail subject to ensuring a high level of safety of the transport process and minimal costs for its implementation. Formalization of this process leads to the formation of an optimization task of the two-stage mathematical model. To implement the first stage, a mathematical model in searching the best route based on risk minimization is developed. In order to exclude the unacceptably complex and expensive options for the carriage of dangerous goods from the many possible routes, the authors abided by the condition not to exceed the critical operating costs. The second stage in the process of planning routes for dangerous goods takes into account the hazard identification study in the technological process of car movement with dangerous goods. Considering that the probability of a potential traffic accident is a complex random variable, which is due to a set of elementary previously unknown events, its estimation was made on the basis of the Bayesian approach. Based on the simulation results, the following reliability values are determined at which a transport accident should not emerge.