Abstract:
Successful crisis resolution of the enterprise depends heavily on its timely detection,
which is facilitated by the use of forecasting models. This allows understanding the
scale of the problems in a timely manner and developing the appropriate measures,
applying various financial mechanisms to prevent it, and in case of occurrence, reducing
the amount of losses. In this context, it is important to choose the most optimal
informational model that would provide the most objective forecasts, considering the
financial activity peculiarities of the analyzed enterprise. Given a wide list of models
that predict the financial crisis, there is a need to analyze and select the most accurate
model for enterprises in the real economy. Ten Ukrainian machine builders are used to
assess the bankruptcy probability using the most popular models; a taxonomic analysis
was carried out, which allows systematizing a large amount of data and analyzing
their impact on enterprise development. An integral index was determined, which allowed
predicting the financial performance dynamics. For each enterprise, ten indicators
were used characterizing their financial state for the period 2014–2018. It is
substantiated that the selected models differ from each other by the set of initial data
and the number of coefficients from four to seven. It is also determined that the efficient
use of studied models is quite different; so when choosing a model to predict the
bankruptcy probability, it is necessary to consider the peculiarities of the enterprise’s
production activity, the accuracy in creating the financial statements and many other
factors, including the presence of company’s shares in circulation at the stock market.
It is worthwhile to use a taxonomic analysis to make a comprehensive comparison of
the enterprise financial state and to substantiate the final choice of the bankruptcy
forecasting model.
