Abstract:
The first cryptocurrency was born in 2008. Already today, virtual financial assets
and tokens are a significant part of trading in global financial markets. The cryptocurrency market
capitalization currently exceeds 600 billion U.S. dollars. However, there is a lot of discussion about
cryptocurrency functions and the correlation between Bitcoin prices and the basic economic indices.
Therefore, the purpose of the paper is to define the statistical substantiation of the influence
of fundamental economic indicators on the market of virtual financial assets and the possibility of
using cryptocurrency as the investment assets.
This article is based on the theoretical principles and methods of econometric analysis; the
system approach methods to define the main vehicles and trends of the international financial
market. The study presents correlation analysis, regression models with paired and multiple
variables. For these models, R-Studio instruments are the main tools of quality estimation and
results interpretation.
The article shows the results of the correlation analysis of Bitcoin’s U.S. dollar price
dynamics and changes in the main stock, monetary market indicators, cryptocurrencies market
tendency, levels of the United States fundamental economic indicators for the period from 2014 to
2021. Traditional multifactorial regression models are used to determine the level and the impact of
individual indicators of the world stock market at the U.S. dollar price of Bitcoin. A comparison of
the level of volatility of key investment financial assets in the market of cryptocurrencies and stock
markets is carried out.
The authors determine the level of correlation dependence and make a regression model of
the impact of fundamental economic indicators and stock market trends on the dynamics of U.S.
dollar prices for key cryptocurrencies. The article presents conclusions on trends and problems of
using cryptocurrencies as an investment asset, considering volatility and profitability. Implementation of the results allows to clarify the economic essence of cryptocurrencies as a
specific financial vehicle, as well as improving the existing models of investment management,
considering the statistical characteristics of the virtual financial assets.
The main direction of further research is to build models of medium-term prediction of
prices for the main cryptocurrencies as an investment asset in conditions of changes in global
financial markets, which must consider the fundamental economic indicators of the world economy
and trends on key stock and commodity markets.
