Abstract:
It is extremely important for the budget process to obtain accurate forecasts of potential
tax revenues, especially in periods of disruption and crisis. The paper is devoted
to the study of dynamics of tax revenues’ volumes in the budget of Ukraine and the
forecast of their values during the crisis.
The dynamics of tax revenues in the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine, studied by using
randomized R|S-analysis, fractal and probabilistic analyses as well as entropy calculation
based on the data on monthly tax revenues for the period 2011–2021, is anti-persistent,
fractal-like and unpredictable based on parametric dependencies, simple and
complex trends. The topological dimension of the lines of dynamics for tax revenues
of all types of taxes is much higher than 1, and the Hirst index indicates either fractal
similarity of dynamics or its chaos. The map of dissipation periods of tax revenues in
Ukraine, determined on the basis of entropy calculation and periods of negative entropy
production according to the dynamics of tax revenues, coincided with the periods
of maximum reduction in their volumes. The most crisis periods in the formation of
tax revenues are 2019–2020, for certain types of taxes – 2016–2020, but the dissipation
of tax revenues is projected for 2021–2022.
The comparison of the level of fractal similarity in dynamics of the volume of tax revenues
and peculiarities of the dynamics of entropy and entropy production, allowed to
substantiate the division of taxes into nine types, of which five were found in Ukraine.
