Features of forecasting and prevention of crisis in the world economy

Abstract

In the article the approaches to defining the determinants of business cycles are considered, the main problems associated with measurement and identification of business cycles are generalized. The purpose of the article is to define the determinants of business cycles, the main methods for forecasting market fluctuations based on the theory of cyclical development of economic systems, as well as features of prediction and prevention of crisis phenomena in the world economy. Under conditions of instability, an extremely important issue is the assessment of processes within the country as well as finding mechanisms for forecasting the direction of development of the macroeconomic situation. The economic cycle is a set of successive phases of the state of the economy and repeated over the years fluctuations of economic activity indicators. The basis for understanding the mechanisms of the global economy is the definition of the phase of the current economic cycle, within which the domestic economy is developing as well. First of all, this is necessary to understand the causes of the preconditions of the present state, as well as the further opportunities and prospects for the development of not only Ukrainian but also the world economy. In order to define the phases of the economic cycle and forecasting macroeconomic fluctuations along with the tracking of dynamics of the basic values of economic development, specially developed composite indicators are used, the most attention of which is given to outlying indices. The dynamics of long economic waves predetermine shorter cycles, changing them and correlating with each other. If short waves fall into the phase of the rise of the K-cycle, then their own phase of lifting lasts longer, while if the short cycles coincide with the phase of the long wave, then the crises formed and the depressions within these cycles become more striking for the economic system, moreover they last for a longer time. The aggregate of external factors is characterized as external excitements such as: international decline, sharp deterioration in terms of trade; reduction of the gross domestic product; rising unemployment; falling real estate prices; high consumption based on broad borrowing associated with the development of individual mortgage lending, not sufficiently secured by borrower discipline and the protection of creditors' rights. In conducting the forecasting of economic processes, it is expedient to take into account the cyclical development of the economy with the definition of the period between two crisis «waves» at a stage where the development of the economy does not yet indicate the beginning of crisis phenomena, but certain indicators of the crisis are already present.