Business forecasting as a financial mechanism of budgeting

Abstract

It is established that the forecasted values of financial potential are based, first of all, on adjusted indicators of its realization in previous periods, taking into account projected changes in sales volumes, profitability, own and borrowed capital, ensuring a positive effect of financial and operational leverage, implementation of investment projects, and so on. Ultimately, financial planning is aimed at providing, restoring or maintaining financial stability. In-house financial planning is based on the use of three of its main systems: forecasting financial activities; current financial planning; operational financial planning, which are interconnected and implemented in a certain sequence. Planning of the financial potential of the company is a list of actions and sequence of the formation of financial capacity, bringing it appropriate material, labor and financial resources to achieve the financial goals and tasks set by the enterprise. The calculation of the projected financial potential of the entity should be based on longterm net profitability (profitability from operations with fixed assets, namely, return on investment of fixed assets) and financial stability, taking into account the forecast of increase of profitability of equity, growth, preservation or restoration of liquidity. The projected financial potential should be based on the generation of a net cash flow that would allow, by increasing gross revenue and return on equity, to increase or restore lost finan-cial sustainability, in particular, the current solvency ratio taking into account the operational and financial leverage and the realistic forecast of growth in its working capital in cash form. In recent years, due to the increase in the range of products, the pace of its renewal and competition in the commodity market, the nature of the management of an industrial enterprise has changed. Management of its finances became impossible without effective planning of production and other activities. Limitation of material and financial resources strengthens the role of the right choice of priorities of the business entity. In connection with this new importance becomes budgeting at enterprises. It is intended to ensure the process of production of competitive products, provided that optimal use of all resources is made, that is, to ensure the flexible development of the enterprise. This is achieved, first of all, by developing a consolidated plan of the main and auxiliary production, taking into account the ranking of customer demand, ranking suppliers’ proposals and improving the supply of raw materials, determining the magnitude of predicted and normalized inventory, production capacity, taking into account the production stops, as well as the internal needs of the enterprise semifinished products and auxiliary products. Only on this basis, you can reduce financial losses, inefficient spending and increase the cash flow generated by business, maintain the necessary liquidity.